Fans must see the whole picture before calling for Tua to start
Cries from the media and some Phins fans are rising, “Start Tua… start Tua, NOW!” I know the thought of it feels good, but it just isn’t the best course of action for Tua or the 2020 Dolphins to start him now.
Yes, starting Tua sooner than later would be a quick injection of hope. It’s only a matter of time before Tua starts. BUT, when is the optimal time for both him and the franchise to have his day? Setting Tua AND the Phins up for success is THE key for both to have long term success. Unfortunately, when you peel back the layers and look at it objectively, starting Tua will more likely than not bring a serious case of buyer’s remorse.
Tua is a Miami Dolphin and the success of both is intertwined
A fair argument for starting Tua is, “Hey, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert are doing just fine. So, what’s the difference with Tua?”
First, the obvious difference is Herbert and Burrow aren’t coming off a near career-ending injury and a long lapse since playing. But, Tua does have to play sometime, so I’m not going to work this angle. I’d prefer the end of this season or the beginning of the next for Tua to start. The reality is though, he is on the 53 man roster… so when it’s his time to play, it’s his time.
But, there is a key difference that I will hang my hat on: Both Herbert and Burrow are currently the best QB options to win games for their respective teams now.
You can bet with the pay per head review sites that Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has the 9th best QBR in the NFL, isn’t getting the love he deserves. This isn’t a knock on Tua. But, the stats are clear, the Phins offense has a pulse because of Fitzpatrick. This isn’t about Fitzpatrick being better than Tua long term… Now that is a whole other story. I’m talking about now.
Brian Flores is all about the next game and winning it. It is a core trait in his philosophical foundation that he is asking the players to buy into. Ask Adam Gase what happens when you break your own credo.
Some might say, ‘Fitzpatrick is throwing a ton of picks and killing us!’ Well, I always say, context is always key in player evaluations.
Stats reflecting how Fitzpatrick is really doing
- Fitzpatrick has the third least time to throw with 2.41 secs. Burrow and Herbert have in the 2.60ish range. Much of the “O-line improvement” is owed to the play of the QB’s pocket presence and release.
- Fitzpatrick is the third most aggressive QB with 23.2 of his passes being aggressive throws. This means Fitzpatrick’s forcing this passing game forward.
- Despite this pressure and aggressive throwing Fitzpatrick is still the 16th best at expected completion % and actual completion %. This means despite one of the most adverse conditions to throw the football he is still performing in the middle of the pack.
- The Dolphins have the 20th worst rushing attack with 499 yards and much of that is thanks to Fitzpatrick who has 20% of that total with 115 rushing yards.
Bottom line: At this point, Fitzpatrick is the most capable QB the Dolphins have. Tua could very well do fine, but the players would know that Flores is looking to the future and not about winning now. That mixed message would hurt the core belief that’s it’s all about winning.
Is Tua the best option for NOW…
… No.
Tua will start when he is the best option and the players know it. They can’t have any regrets or buyer’s remorse when Tua takes over. Just like last year when Fitz was replaced by Rosen, Tua’s time will come when it’s the right time. Even coach Flores said, “Tua isn’t ready to start.”
Patience is the hardest thing in the world especially when you are as jaded as many Phins fans are.
As I’ve said before, keep one eye on this season and one to the future. Phins are trending up, for sure. Not as fast as we Phins fans want, but they are trending up. Go Phins!!!
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