Reality Check: Facts Wreck ESPN’s Phins Prediction

ESPN has already predicted Miami would end up dead last in 2018…

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Since Dolphins news is scarce, Jimmy Bourbon went on vacation and I decided to join him… That was until I read ESPN’s 2018 prediction on the Dolphins rushing attack and their running backs. The senselessness of their estimations left me no choice but to check the flow of B.S.

Here’s the ‘well thought out’ article–if you care to look.

Essentially, Mike Clay bases HIS ranking on HIS projected stats: The most yards rushing and receiving wins in this ‘backfield ranking’.

BTW Clay’s has these numbers for the Phins backfield: 1,379 rushing yards, eight touchdowns along with 72 receptions for 554 yards and two receiving touchdowns.

I’ll take a bet with the pay per head services that Drake, Gore, and Ballage do better than that!

My primary gripe about the article is: The train of thought Clay uses to reach his premise is… well, it’s a trainwreck.

This was supposed to be an article about ranking the backfields, not rushing production. Rushing production and quality of the backfield aren’t direct equations. A runner’s production can never be dissociated from their Offensive Lines. Yet, Clay uses ‘imaginary’ production as the sole estimation of an RB’s talents.

How come the backfield’s Offensive Line is never mentioned in this article?

Aside from the occasional spectacular play, the quality of a backfield is about maximizing the space given by the ‘big uglies’ up front.

The title of Clay’s article and its premise are incongruent.

So let’s first consider ‘rushing production’ properly:

Miami replaced a turnstile at Left Guard with a Top 5 at the position. PFF rated Sitton the 10th best O-linemen in the NFL and would make a serious and immediate impact. You’d figure that would mean something to a ‘pro evaluator’. Add to this a large bump up in the run blocking production at Center. Mike Pouncey’s replacement with Daniel Kilgore is a move from dead last in run blocking to 18th. That’s not something to sneeze at. And don’t sleep on Jesse Davis who was the main reason Drake popped most of his big runs.

Since Tight Ends are an extension of the O-Line, Clay had to take into account that Julius (worst run blocking TE in the game)Thomas is gone. Didn’t he? Replacing Thomas in blocking will be Durham Smythe, A.J. Derby, and MarQueis Gray who are all better blockers. Gray and Smythe are substantially better inline blockers and both have experience at H-Back.

In 2018, Dolphins RBs will get by with a little help from their friends on the O-Line

All these blocking improvements will create much more space for Dolphins runners to work with. Wouldn’t that increase production? And then ‘rank the backfield higher’?

Furthermore, if ESPN’s ‘backfield ranking’ is based on yards, the fact that Miami ranked dead last in rush attempts should mean something? No?

Then there is the efficiency of the runs themselves to consider.

In 2017, Miami averaged 3.9 YPC with no passing game, limited looks given to the defense, and a revolving door up and down the O-Line. Even with all these mitigating factors, Miami ended up tied for 22nd in efficiency. They were only .10 of a yard from a 19th rank and .20 from a 14th rank. This range (4.0-4.1 YPC) is slightly under my projected floor of efficiency for 2018. I also expect a dramatic rise in the number of carries and a rise in their 12 Personnel packages. More touches and more two TE sets with further aid their run game production. Both in combination could boost their rushing production and efficiency substantially.

Okay, let’s look at the backs themselves… in context:

Clay had this to say of Gore, “He’s expected to get the first shot at lead-back duties, but 35-year-old Gore, who is averaging 3.80 YPC over the past three seasons, also will be involved. ”

Let’s see how this works in Clay’s mind…

Type up Gore’s run per avg. Notice his age and YPC over last three season. Whalla– he’s washed up.

Man, that was easy, huh?

Now, let’s for the fun of it invest more than 2 seconds and take a critical look at this. Gore’s last season in San Fran he averaged 4.3 YPC. His following 3 seasons, all with the Colts, registered 3.7, 3.9, and 3.7 YPC. And here’s the context for last season, Colts backs averaged just 1.07 yards before contact in 2017, the third-lowest in the NFL. Think that might be a factor? So, Gore was the 12th ranked rusher behind the 3rd worst O-Line! Does that sound washed up to you?

I say loudly, ‘Hell to the NO’ that Gore is washed up

And as for Drake, he had a pathetic 0.59 yards before contact… last in the NFL by a mile. It was so bad that Detroit was second to last and nearly double Miami at 0.96 yards. For reference, the NFL average is 1.56 yards before contact. It’s all about the O-line play factoring in the rushing production of the back. And folks, Drake led the league in rushing with this level of blocking. Yeah, some stars sat the final week or two, but you can’t dismiss the production in the face of severe adversity.

A fair assessment is Gore and Drake did a hell of a lot with some of the worst blocking in football

So Miami ranked 29th in rushing in 2017… and according to Clay and ESPN, they’ll move up just one notch to 28th.

Okay, remember that 0.59 before contact average I spoke of earlier? Let’s say for argument’s sake that at a bare minimum all these new run blocking assets move the Phins into 2nd worst of yards before contact (0.91 with 2017 numbers). Even this slight advancement ( 3.9 plus.30) would put Miami at around 4.2 YPC (tied for 11th in efficiency with 2017 numbers) if Drake and Gore can just equal their play in 2017.

This is the floor, Phins Fans.

Now also remember that Miami rushed the least in the league in 2017. Gase loves to run the ball, so expect more than the 325 carries (360 minus all non RB runs) in 2017. Add just 2 more RB carries per game and you get around 350 RB carries on the season.

Least do some simple math with the lowest expectations: 4.2 YPC x 350 equals about 1500 yards rushing combined. This will be the least of what’s to be expected in 2018…

…and I didn’t even get into the RBs in the passing game.

The gauntlet is thrown by Phinsnews right in the face of ESPN… take that! Now, back to vacation time… until the 23rd. Go PHINS!!!