This year the Dolphins are averaging 24.9 points per game, which ranks as the 11th highest in the entire league, which is a huge improvement over last year’s average of 19.8 points per game, which ranked 27th in the league. The scary part is that the Dolphins lead the league in redzone trips this season with 49 so far. However, their touchdown percentage in those 49 trips is a paltry 44.9%, so this Dolphin offense is clearly leaving points on the board. If the Dolphins really want to win against the Broncos this weekend, then they will have to turn those redzone trips into touchdowns. Most sports gambling fans would agree, that you are not going to beat a Peyton Manning led team by scoring field goals, instead of touchdowns.
The Broncos’ run defense is currently ranked 2nd best in the league allowing only 73.4 yards per game. However, last week against the St. Louis Rams they allowed Tre Mason to run for 113 yards on 29 carries for an average of 3.9 yards a carry, and the entire Rams team to run for 131 yards on 33 carries for an average of 4.0 yards per carry. The biggest thing that jumps out is that the Rams made a solid commitment to the run by rushing 33 times, which was more than the 29 passing plays they called. On paper the Dolphins have a better running game than the Rams, but on Sunday the Dolphins will have to physically prove it on the field. The Dolphins must make a commitment to the run, and force the Broncos to respect Miami’s running capability. As with most games, if a team can be successful with the run, then this will open up space and opportunities in the passing game.
The Dolphins should be able to move the ball down the field, however in this game especially they must score touchdowns. Lazor needs to start calling some more creative plays in the redzone, that will get players like Wallace, Miller and Landry in space or on single coverage so they can get into the endzone. Tannehill has also proven his ability to make plays when rolling outside of the pocket, so Lazor should think about calling some bootleg or naked bootleg plays that give Tannehill the option to pass or run for a touchdown. Philbin might also need to go for it on fourth and short a couple of times, because Miami needs to maximize every opportunity they have in this game, and put up 7 when they are in striking distance of the endzone.
Another thing that the Miami offense needs to do is win the time of possession game. Manning can only beat you when he is on the field. However, I remember years ago in Miami when he was on the Colts and we played them in a night game, and our offense chewed up around 40 minutes of the clock, and Manning still beat us with his blitzkrieg style 2 minute touchdown drives. Last week the Rams had the ball for just over 35 minutes compared to the Broncos 24 minutes. Miami will benefit from a similar time of possession ratio, and again the best way to control the clock is for Miami to develop a running game. Do phin fans think that the Miami offense can run the ball and score touchdowns when they have the chance?