Run Game is Key in Phins V.S. Seahawks
The rushing game will be the focus in Phins Week 4 matchup
While the Phins V.S. Hawks matchup will be billed by the media as ‘Wilson V.S. Fitzmagic’, savvy fans should instead focus on the ground game of both teams. How each team rushes the ball and defends the run will determine who wins this week. While the Hawks have the amazing Russell Wilson, T.J. Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett, they only have a decent ground game that’s only slightly better than Miami’s. To make matters worse for Seattle’s running attack, this unit took an awful amount of injuries in their win over the Cowboys. If Miami wants to limit Wilson and win, they must run the football and stop the run. Making Wilson one dimensional, keeping him off the field, and keeping the Seattle defense in the South Florida heat is the winning recipe for Miami.
Seattle has the 2nd best run defense in the NFL
While beating a hobbled team doesn’t make for a great victory, the reality is healthy teams have an advantage over wounded ones. Seattle will be missing starting RB Carson and possibly starting G Lewis and C Ethan Pocic. Also, on defense, the Seahawks could be without LB Brooks, S Adams, S Hill, and S Thorpe. The Seattle rushing attack will be severely limited and so will their 2nd best run defense (66 YPG) due to a rash of injuries in Week 3. Overall, Seattle is ranked 24th in total yards and 27th against the pass, so if Miami can run the ball it will collapse the defense. Victory in the ground game would go a long way towards coming out of Week 4 with an upset.
Can the Phins rise to the occasion in the trenches, though?
Unfortunately, this could go the other way. While Miami took a positive step forward in both departments against the Jaguars, the Dolphins have struggled to run the ball and stop the run for what seems like forever. If they can’t make hay in both departments this week against a weakened opponent, then it will be a long day… and a long year.
But, there are a few indications that maybe the Phins will take advantage on offense.
- Miami has had some excellent blocking from both TEs Smythe and Gesicki who are the 20th and 4th best inline blockers. Seattle has excellent linebackers in K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner who are the 15th and 3rd best linebackers in the NFL. With all the damage done to their safeties, Seattle’s second level of the defense is thin. Isaiah Ford who has been an excellent run blocker and TE Shaheen who is solid may tip the scales in Miami’s favor.
- The Phins O-line hasn’t been good at run blocking, but they are huge. With LB Bruce Irvin out for the season and now LB Jordyn Brooks doubtful, the linebacker group is also thin. Center Ted Karras has been above average run blocking, so if he can have a good game and FB Chandler Cox can block better than he has, Miami could wear down and overload this thin Seattle front.
The Phins run defense looked much improved Week 3, but will it continue?
- Miami limited Jacksonville to 77 yards on the ground, which was there best of the 2020 Season. DT Zack Seiler played substantial snaps and affected positively affected both the pass and run defense. The biggest thing I saw on tape was Seiler took on double teams and had some success. Davon Godchaux has lost more than he has won against the double team, which has crippled this scheme. Also, I like Seiler’s ability to play 4-tech over the tackle.
- Rookie Raekwon Davis was substantially more effective as he slid inside on passing downs. Davis has limited speed, agility, and pass rush moves, so in 3-tech, he becomes a non-factor. What Davis does have is power and he overwhelmed the Center and Guard one-on-one with power and absorbs double teams in 2-0 Tech. Head over Guard to head over center has been his best position on passing downs. He was decent in 3-tech on running downs though, but he was a little slow to stop runs off tackle. He might be a year away from an every-down 3-tech. If Seattle’s center is out, Davis could be a real factor though.
Miami needs to finally show that they are a physical team
On its face, this game looks to be a blowout. But, injuries, Miami’s extra time to prepare, and that it’s a home game makes this a winnable game. At the very least, it should shock the best pay per head reviews and be close. The Dolphins have been built to be tough and physical. This is the week for them to show it. Miami is fresh and Seattle beat up, body blows will take there toll… if the Phins can deliver them. Go Phins!!!
With all the injuries to the Seattle Secondary, I expect our Offense to use the passing game to set up the running game. They are thin and very exposed on the back-end. We should have a number of big plays, plus some good run plays off of the pass. I hope that some of the Seahawk players have heat stroke, nausea, cramping, etc. Especially their two WR’s! I think we need complimentary football for sure on both sides. Our running game I feel needs to go over 120 to have a chance to win. I think we are right there. However, this is game 4, and run blocking is harder vs. pass blocking. On field temps should be near 100 degrees again, so we need to make them pay! Pressure on Wilson has to come from the interior DL and our edge rushers MUST maintain contaiment! Hopefully we squeak out a win!
Went back and watched the game one last time and then did some stat crunching. We did have the lead early, so that skews these stats a bit and Fitz ran 7 times… but, we ran the ball 36 times and threw 20 with a 8.0 per attempt with 6.4 completed air yards ranking him 14th best. Basically, all this says the gameplan was a ground game with intermediate passing. I expect this week to have a similar intention, but fewer runs and slightly deeper throws. Now, with they be able to pull it off? I do agree the passing game will drive the run game, but… I still see them being balanced… or at least trying to early. Crossing routes hurt the Seahawks secondary… I have a feeling the will use a nice dose of them and Gesicki beating Wright for a big play is something I could also see… big game, Stephen… excited and hope not to be disappointed.
From what we are seeing in practice, I expect Howard to be full go and Jones to be a spot player. Still not the best news considering Seattle’s passing game. But, they will pass that can’t be stopped. We need some key play in third and longs. It looks like Clayton Fejedelem will play… he flashed in pass coverage… I’m excited to see him play. He has good hands for picks. But, yeah, likey a loss… just want to see it close.
I think though in this game it’s even more crucial because of the injuries and long week for us. We have all the cards in our favor to be the more physical team. At a 100%, they are way better run D than we are a running attack and slightly better run O than we are run D. But, as it stands now, we have been given huge advantages if we can’t make hay in them then Seattle’s strength will destroy us. This is the time to show the physicality of this team. It might not give us the W, but we should make it look good, Steven.
It should also be said that if both Howard and Jones can’t play the entire game, and at a high level, most likely we are looking at a loss. Jones & Howard being healthy along with the run game offense/defense is critical!
MJ,
Totally agree. To win in the NFL consistently you have to stop the run and run the ball on offense. Our defense needs to make Seattle one-dimensional. Seahawks appear to be pretty banged up, with multiple starters out! Their secondary is hit especially hard so our passing game could have a big day. Need to keep Russell Wilson and their offense from getting big plays. Our offense needs to keep Seahawks defense on the field as much as possible. They will “wilt” by mid-3rd quarter. It goes without saying that Fitzpatrick needs to have another good game. I say this because he can be inconsistent from week to week. If Fitz is off, we probably loose!