Should the Phins grab the best running back in the draft at #18?
The other day, Jimmy Bourbon wrote the article “When Will Miami Draft A Running Back”. While most agree with his perspective, I and some readers had different sentiments on ‘when and which’ rookie runner Miami should draft. Now let me be clear, after spending two days watching tape on the trio of top RB prospects, I wouldn’t lose a bit of sleep if the Phins draft Najee Harris at #18. But, I do think that Miami could do even better for themselves if they took an alternate path to ‘their new running back’.
Maybe not the consensus opinion…
I don’t see running back Najee Harris as the best fit for the Dolphins. In a bubble, Harris has very high talent: big, fast, strong, durable, and has excellent receiving skills. There is nothing not to like about the Alabama runner.
This is an excellent PFF article on this year’s running back draft class. Below is a snippet of information showing just how good of a power runner Harris is.
Considering how good Josh Jacobs is in the pros, you have to wonder if Harris can outdo him in the NFL! But we should always remember, except in very rare cases, the production of a running back in the NFL is always reflective of the offensive line talent in front of them and the scheme they run in.
Remember not all offensive lines are made equal
Miami had power backs Kalen Ballage and Jordan Howard disappear in behind their Oline, while scatbacks / shifty runners Mark Walton, Myles Gaskin, and Salvon Ahmed shinned. Big power backs need space to work with; shifty, agile runners can find creases when a play goes off-script…
… And with the run blocking of the Phins offensive line, lack of space and going off script happens quite a bit.
Austin Jackson and Ereck Flowers will start this year, and they are passable road graders at best. I expect Jackson to grow as a run blocker as his ‘man strength’ grows in the coming season… but not this year. Flowers is huge but oddly a better pass blocker. Given his experience and quality pass protection, Miami won’t likely move off him until 2022. So the right side doesn’t look a fit for Harris. How To Become A Bookie – The Right Way For You?.
The Phins also lack a quality center and Solomon Kindley is young and still a question mark. While they could draft a good center and Kindley could be replaced, Miami appears to need to focus on upgrading their line to build around Harris to get his best in 2021. To be fair, Miami could draft Harris with a long-term plan in mind.
Only Robert Hunt and possibly recently signed gigantic D.J. Fluke, who I expect to move inside to Right Guard, are quality run blockers. General manager M.J. would prefer Hunt to move inside instead because his footwork seems limited and working in less space would really help him. But, I’m not hot on the idea of banking Fluker or Jesse Davis in the edge, so this would mean Miami needs to find a quality option at Right Tackle. I guess this could lend some support for Slater or Sewell at #6 and Harris at #18. How Does Sportsbook Betting Software Work?
Even in this case, I think Miami could do better with the ammo available.
Some Phins News readers turned me onto Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams is listed as the 3rd best runner in the draft and some are using his 4.55 forty to ding his status. For me, the 5’10” 220 lbs back is one heck of a buy at the 36th Overall selection. His film and Earl Campbell thighs just pop off the screen running behind a less than stellar Oline. Despite his ‘not super-duper’ forty time of 4.55, Williams had one heck of a Pro Day. Mind you his fellow back Michael Carter ran a 4.50 at nearly 19lbs less. The tape is clear: Williams runs well in pads and “he led the nation with 75 forced missed tackles (48% missed tackle rate — a PFF record).” Lastly, he was second in the nation in carries over 15 yards (27) posted the single best PFF Graded season by a runner ever!
No, there isn’t a guarantee he or one of the other two will last to #36, but Phins Newsreader Steve Dunn had a very solid point.
So, I’ll let Steve take over the show here for a bit.
“As far as pick #18, no way do they draft an RB there. Maybe they trade back and grab one? But the most logical spot would be pick #36. Having said that let us look at the teams that stand in between pick #18 and #36.” Steve Dunn
Teams who could need an RB in front of Phins #36
- 19- Wash + no need for an RB.
- 20- Bears, they could take an RB, again not this early, they have to many needs and looking for a QB
- 21- Colts = NO
- 22- Titans = NO
- 23- Jets + they could, but after drafting their franchise QB earlier, they will draft someone to protect him (OL)
- 24- Steelers, this is a definite spot where the first RB is taken (Harris)
- 25- Jaguars – NO
- 26- Browns = NO
- 27- Ravens = NO
- 28- Saints= NO
- 29- Packers = NO
- 30- Bills = NO
- 31- Chiefs = NO
- 32- This is a spot where Tampa can afford to take the best player available, a slight chance could be RB.
- 33- Jags = NO
- 34- Jets = Possible, but the Jets need so much, hard to see them talking RB this early w/their draft capital
- 35- Falcons = Possible, this will depend on their first pick.
- ***************PICK 36***********************
Good and well-thought-out stuff, Steve! Thanks for the info.
Jimmy Bourbon is 100% correct that the journey from #18 to #36 would be a nail-biter. And he is also right that Miami could repeat their miss of a quality runner like in 2019 because they waited too long. Still, they are spending two 1st Round picks on whoever they draft at #6 and still lack a good Oline… they need to ‘get more with less’ to balance it out. Becoming a Bookie – A Career Choice?.
For me, Williams is a better fit than Harris and is near or as good a running back. I’d rather roll the dice on another position… or after a short trade back to an RB-hungry team like the Steelers and then get a quality O-linemen like Teven Jenkins and the runner at #36. At least an improved O-line would help Tua, the defense, and a very underrated Myles Gaskin, 24th best RB behind a terrible run blocking Online.
Again, I don’t think that Jimmy or readers that agree with him are wrong… but, I do think there is a better road. If Miami is building around one player they need to build around Tua. A player like Pitts or Chase at #6 along with a better O-line and a chance at quality runner does that more than a sure pick of a power running back–even one as good as Harris! Go Phins!!! The Basics Of Bookmaking Guidelines.