Could Trading Back Be A Winning Move?
Could trading back in the 1st be the perfect start to a successful season?
A modern-day platform for the most expensive gambling game in history.
Trading down, in the upcoming NFL Draft, is a hot topic among Dolphins fans. Slotted at #11, the Phins are probably too low for a shot at a franchise QB. Trading up simply isn’t a realistic option. Remember folks, Tannenbaum holds the reins now, not Ireland. Memories of Dion Jordan still makes Phins Front Office exec’s tail-end pucker up.
If that didn’t do it, does Leonte Caroo ring a bell? With our long list of dire needs, a trade-up is out of the question. We need more picks, not less.
However, there’s no question that our current Front Office likes to wheel and deal with trades and acquisitions. Of course, the success of that activity–so far–is debatable. I’d guess the Front Office believes, ‘you’ve got to be in it to win it’. And they are in it a lot.
So far, Mike Tannenbaum and Chris Grier have traded every which way but loose. But they have yet to move their 1st Round Pick on Draft Day. Maybe the best tactic is to finally trade back for more picks?
Trading picks for more picks means more rolls of the dice to hit BIG
It doesn’t take a pph bookie services to know the Phins trades to move up have been a mixed bag.
But if one of those top QB prospects drops, instead of going up the draft ladder, Miami could get more picks with the 11th by moving back in the draft. And if you’ve read any comments from our reader “Draft Freak” Steve, he’ll tell you again and again, ‘trade back’. He turned M.J. into a believer.
More and more, the ground swell has grown that this is the best move the FO can make… that is, if the opportunity presents itself, of course.
We must remember: A trade back is entirely dependent on someone else wanting the pick. After that though, it’s ALL on the Trifecta.
Phinsnews.com is split on whether a trade back from #11 is wise. While Phinsnews has come to believe it could end up a great play, we have our reservations. The key point of concern is, does this FO have the ability to find equal or better value in the trade back compared to grabbing a player early?
Nothing is fail safe… but some moves are more idiot proof then others. Lower the pick equals better odds.
Miami Herald’s Armando Salguero (among others writers and mock drafter extraordinaires) are predicting at least 6 teams will be interested in drafting a QB in the first round. Considering only 4 or 5 QB’s (if you count Lamar Jackson) are ‘worthy’ of the first round picks, it could very easily end up that a QB hungry team is willing to part ways with a few draft picks to get their future ‘franchise QB’.
This COULD be a WIN for the Phins…
…But again, can this FO ‘go fish’ with lesser bait and pull in good haul?
For me, I get the ‘heebie jeebies’ when I think of what Miami’s past regimes have done with the extra picks they received via trades… especially when they get them from player trades… PAT WHITE.
But that history is the past. A more relevant question is, how has Miami’s recent deals for extra picks panned out?
I’d like to reference how Miami did pretty well with their trade for more picks with the Eagles in 2015… But Hickey was a big part of that equation. He’s not here Tannenbaum is.
A better look at this FO’s ability to trade back is the deal that Tannenbaum made with Belichick in 2016. The Phins traded their 5th for two of the Pats’ 6th’s with which the Dolphins acquired Jakeem Grant and Jordan Lucas.
The Pats quickly parlayed Miami’s 5th to the Seahawks for a 7th in 2016 and a 4th in 2017. Ouch!
Pats used the 7th rounder to get Devin Lucien the WR, who hasn’t been a factor. But the 4th brought them Deatrich Wise who contributed on 543 snaps 16 Tackles, 5 sacks, and 1 PDF.
Note to Tannenbaum: Taking a long range view will get you more when trading back.
While the ‘Cheat’ out played Tannenbaum in value of picks, Grier (and Gase who wanted Grant) did a good job (it looks like) in getting Mighty Mouse–despite his limited role so far.
This very well may break even for both teams… or possibly in the Dolphins favor if Grants builds his play at the end of 2017.
We can only hope.
Phinsnews has stated in a previous article at the good work Miami has done in later rounds. So if we do trade back and get a bad deal from T-bum, Grier and Gase could very well pull his fat out of the fire with some good selections?
From a P.R. standpoint though, it won’t be easy to pass on a QB such as Baker Mayfield. It will be a very tough decision for Miami’s head honchos. Miami could decide that Mayfield is too good of a prospect to pass up or be compelled to draft him due to the specter of missing out on a franchise QB, if they don’t pull the trigger.
It will take a mix of luck, balls, and skill to pull a successful trade back off, for sure. Does the trifecta have the right stuff?
There’s also always this remote chance: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Mike White, and Mason Rudolf could be the target later in the draft. Maybe a dream sequence of Phin Fans across the nation becomes reality… Miami trades back and uses one of the newly acquired picks to draft their future starting QB–a HOFer!
The reality of the regular season is still a long way off, so why not…. heck, it’s the Offseason where dreams are possible.
Ultimately, if they get a shot at a Top QB at #11, trade back or not, what they decide will be a seminal moment for this regime. This key decision could either be a launch pad to success or the death nail for this regime. What are the rest of the Miami Dolphins News fans thoughts about trading back in the draft?
How NFL teams ignore basic economics and draft players irrationally.
Admin just Another reason why I’m sold on trading back.
The Web page listed below discussed the historic data etc. On trading back,trading down and cons of staying put.
https://www.google.iq/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/2014/5/7/5683448/how-nfl-teams-ignore-basic-economics-and-draft-players-irrationally
Many fans believed that if the New England Patriots or the Phidephia Eagle were to called to make a trade with the Dolphins.The Dolphins should just hang up? Because they will buy swamp land.
I would contend not so! Considering management has done their home work. Then after I really think about it just hang up!
Admin!
Thanks alot, all we have is hope for a Supper Bowl team. Thanks for paying attention to us Dolphins fan’s.
No worries brother… I edited Jimmy’s piece… I felt I had to add it.
I am all for the trade back scenario. This years draft class seems to have quality depth (first 2-3 rounds) in the areas of need for Miami.
If Miami were to trade back with say J-Ville (QB needy). That would be a big move back, however; such move could garner 1 of 2 assets in return; 1) a 2nd and 3rd rounder in this April’s draft, 2) another 2nd rounder in ’18 and a first rounder in ’19. I personally would like an extra second and third this year, but wouldn’t mind an extra second this year and have 2 first round picks next year.
At 29, Miami could go with their guard such as Wynn/Price/Hernandez or Braden Smith (my personal favorite) followed by LBer such as Leighton Vander Esch, Rashaan Evans, or Darius Leonard who EXCELS in pass coverage, followed by TE such as Goedert/Andrews/Hurst. All players that should be available within the top 2 rounds.
That would be 3 additions to areas of dire need. Not to mention 2 more picks in the 3rd w/players such as Edge players; Hubbard/Ejiofor/Rolland-Jones, how about a CB from a very deep CB class, such as; Jackson/Nelson/Stewart or my personal favorite Quenton Meeks. There could be a quality RB available throughout the first 2 days of the draft.
A trade back would be great, but at what cost, the more picks they can assemble the better, especially in this years draft.
A lot depends on what the teams looking for QB do in free agency. If there is a run on the top QB prospects, a team like Arizona might look to move up from fifteenth. Trading the 11th pick for the 15th plus whatever else would still leave Miami in good position to get a BPA that would fill a need ie LB, OL, TE, DE. Backing up to 29th may bring an extra 2nd round and 4th round pick. It’s not clear that Jax will be looking to move up that high for a QB.
It would make sense for Miami to trade back in the first round but so much else has to happen for that to happen. I would not use the 11th pick on a QB unless Rosen or Darnold fall which I seriously doubt will happen. But, Mason Rudolph may be worth a 2nd round if he’s there and Mike White is worth a 3rd round.
We shall see.
I wasn’t hip on it… was fixed on getting a couple of players… but Steve turned me. Jimmy is fixed on Jackson… he wants him in the worst way. But, I personally would love to trade back and get Vea… never happening, but I’d love having a NT back in Miami. Or Davenport should he fall. Heck even James. A move back with Arizona would be nice.
I agree… I don’t think Gase will ever take a G… even Nelson… at 11. Maybe a trade back that high would get them a G early. Plus, I love getting picks for next year. I added that small bit to Jimmy’s article. They need to star that… sacrifice this year for more next year. I felt like they were going that route, but Carroo and from Cutler on they sacrificed the future for now. This team isn’t going to the SB, unless insane level of things occur… 2019-20 should be a target date. You like Smith huh? Need to watch some film on him then… trying to keep up. Still have a few Steve wants me to look at… Smith will be up soon. Don’t like Rosen with all the Cutler comparisons… don’t really love any of these top QB’s. Cant hurt to get a CB, but I think someone to cover the TE is more crucial… as is DE or SLB. Just me though.