The outlook for the 2021 Season appears grim, but Tua is still the key to finding success
Sitting at 1-5, the Miami Dolphins are on track to an ugly season following their defeat to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The outlook for not just this season but the future as well appears grim. In 2022, Phins fans could get a new regime or new rebuild or some combination of the two depending on how deep this hole gets. One bit of light does remain in Tua Tagovailoa. Some are adamant that Tua is a bust, others a star dimmed by Miami mishandling. I don’t think Tua craps stardust or has the reverse Midas touch. Little ole’ me sees a kid who is just a human trying to learn a very difficult job that gobbles up far more than not.
What we saw against the Jags at once offers hope and caution… just like 95% of young QBs. But, if this season collapses and we get a total clearing of the house, measurable improvement by Tua will make an unsavory season savory by season’s end.
Slice it howeva’: A better, more comfortable Tua solidified in his position will enhance the future of this franchise come-what-may.
This means even if the playoffs are out of the picture, there is still plenty to watch and be hopeful about.
Being realistic in the unrealistic world of fandom
you can bet with the best football software that stats are numbers in a vacuum and lack context. Numbers never outweigh film. So, all evaluation demands a combination of the two in context.
As an example, last season Chan Gailey, the Dolphins offense, and Tua were judged under a lens that didn’t have a critical factor of the quarterback not knowing the playbook. We didn’t get that info till well after Gailey was gone. ‘Gailey sucked’, this ‘O” was too conservative’, ‘Tua couldn’t read defenses’ or ‘go through progressions’ were the cries from fans. Remember the gazillion articles and posts about Gailey trying to sabotage Tua for Fitz getting benched! ALL slander and lies. When you add the context that Tua wasn’t right with the playbook all those evaluations flip on a dime. Does this make Tua dumb or a bad player? No… plenty of greats sat and learned. But, the offense sure does make sense in retrospect. I still think this is the key question none of the beat writers are asking: Who put Tua in without asking Gailey when he didn’t know the playbook?
Anyway…
Against the Jaguars Tua went 33 for 47 with 2 TDs and 1 INT. That’s near 70% of his passes completed! Not a bad day at all statistically. Well, what did the tape say?
With only 56 yards of rushing from the RBs supporting him, plenty of pressure, and after a layoff with broken ribs, the tape and stats pretty much jive in the evaluation.
Good traits Tua showed this week
- Movement under pressure. Tua isn’t a scrambling QB, he is a mobile pocket passer. He climbs the pocket well and can break out to put a decent hurt on the defense with his feet. Tua doesn’t threaten the edge or scare defenses with his speed. He does though force defense to respect the middle in case he leaks out. This is a solid plus.
- Tua threw under heavy duress with accuracy many times and his happy feet seemed more steady than last season. Overall, if this line could protect better his confidence would rise and this could turn into a real asset as we are seeing with Mac Jones.
- Quick release. He isn’t Dan Marino, but the ball comes out quick and this is a big plus that he has shown from Day 1 until now.
- Accuacy between the hashes and on short outs. You want a little better ball location at times and to see the accuracy better on the deeper outs, but these quality traits with amply tape to back.
There are some caveats though for his long-term evaluation.
Clean ups Tua needs if he wants to take it to the next level
- Improved throwing mechanics. Tua often has sloppy throwing mechanics and due to his injuries and size, every little bit counts. Check out Drew Brees or Tom Brady throw the football. Now imagine how much better Tua would be with those mechanics. Neither of these HOFers were blessed with cannons, but they worked hard for years and it paid of big. Tua needs to following in their footsteps.
- Some critical judgement failures. Throwing on the football on 3rd Down when one step would have earned the 1st Down and throwing an aweful pick after the defense earned a turnover is critical mental lapses that a QB must grow past. Tua is a young QB and while he had a few more than you’d prefer, these are normal for a QB who has even had a full season of starting.
- Abilty to read a sitation rather than follow a plan. Again, this is normal for a young QB because Joe Burrow is the rare execption in his ability to read defenses. Let’s remember too that Tua wasn’t asked to do much of this at his powerhouse Bama teams. This will be the make or break for his career. The good news is that I saw a lot more control by Tua this week than in previous weeks presnap. Still, like Brees, his abilty to succeed presnap and postsnap on the mental side will be the key to offsetting his lack of bigger, stronger, and faster. Another player to notice is Kirk Cousins, who has played far better than the ‘news’ leads you to believe. His growth has followed his ability to win post and presnap.
Most of Tua’s tape against the Jaguars was positive. There certainly needs some clean-up and growth, but there was neither anything to say star or bust… just a young kid learning a hard job. To me, Tua needs a run game and O-line a whole lot more than he does a cast of flashy and fragile receivers. Ohh, by the way… keep Gesicki! Just a tip. This flawed plan goes back to the builder of this team. A much better OC would help a ton too… but, that too I believe goes back to the builder of this team as well.
But, I’m just a blogger… what do I know.
I wouldn’t write Tua’s trip to Canton or ‘Bustville’ just yet. Give the kid this season to see how much the kid improves. Remember, it’s not elite or bust… just ask the Tennesse Titans. Go Phins!!!