Vegas & 10,000 Simulations Predict Doom For Phins
Vegas says the Phins 2018 Season is destined for the crapper…
…Of course, Vegas predicted the same thing in 2016
We all know what ESPN thinks about the Miami Dolphins chances of success, year after year. Phinsnews has ‘waxed poetic’ on them in the past. Now we can add Vegas and the Action Network’s 10,000 simulations to the list of this year’s doomsayers. Various pay per head reviews like AcePerHead.com have just released their line for each NFL team’s regular season win totals. The Dolphins are near the bottom of the barrel with a total of 6 measly games at -140. Action Network took it a step further and ranked us dead last in the league with 3 wins for 2018!
For most, the Dolphins 2018 Season is already flushed down the crapper
From a betting standpoint, this means if you think the Dolphins will win more than 6 games you will need to risk $140 to win a 100.
Phinsnews doesn’t buy these prognostications in the least–especially Action Network’s ludicrous 3 wins. We at Phinsnews are bucking the trend and seeing a 2016esque ‘beating of the Vegas odds’. Although, it’s still too early say if it will be double-digit wins and the postseason like Gase’s inaugural outing.
Let’s be sober about this:
The Dolphins won 6 games last season without their starting QB, a wreaked Offensive Line, coke-head coach, and a ton of catastrophic events. But with Tannehill back, a load of quality moves, minus black-cat luck, and a bye week they will end up with the same record?
No way!
Let the faithful begin an around the clock prayer vigil against evil Vegas
Now Phinsnews can’t say how many wins it will be… yet. But it will be sure as hell more than 3!
It’s frustrating that the oddsmakers aren’t predicting Miami to do better, now that Tannehill’s back as the starter. Maybe Vegas is factoring that Tannehill won’t be able to stay healthy for the full season? Maybe the lack of belief in the backups adds to this dour win total?
If that’s the case they did a poor job of with their medical review in 2017.
Last season the Dolphins win total was 7.5 wins (-125) with Tannehill’s knee not undergoing surgery. So how the heck are they predicting less now?
The departure of Suh, Landry, Pouncey, and Ajayi are likely the culprit. It is a lot of production and talent out the door.
A ton of pieces were added to the team this offseason to fill the void of departed stars
But most of these losses have been attacked in the offseason. Drake and Gore is a better combo than Ajayi and Williams. And Sitton and Kilgore is a much better combo than Pouncey and Larsen. Even the Landry loss has been mitigated with the addition of Danny Amendola, Albert Wilson, and Mike Gesicki.
The only real missing piece that hasn’t been addressed with both barrels is Suh.
Miami will be the underdog in most of the games they play. The odds for the Dolphins this season are currently:
- Winning the AFC East: +1200
- To win AFC Conference: +5,000
- To just make the playoffs: +525
- A Super Bowl victory: +10,000
Either Gase and Miami will succumb to weight and reality of these predictions or will surprise a lot of folks.
Vegas has thrown Miami an early forecast bone, though. Maybe the worm is turning? Week 1 against Tennessee opened up with the Titans as the -2.5 point road favorite, but the line has pulled back to only -1 for the Titans. Still, given that Miami is home, this is saying the Phins will stink.
To end on a good note, long time Dolphins fans will remember all too well that the Dolphins often play better when they are the underdogs. Maybe all this negativity will give rise to a surprise season? We can only hope and pray. Go Fins!!! What are the rest of the Miami Dolphins News fans thoughts about this?
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Currently the expert have the Dolphins Defense ranked about the 19th spot. I believed that the Dolphins secondary will earned the ranking in the top 10 by week 6 of this 2018 season.
Great examples how a top performing secondary should performed.
Thunder and Destruction – Secondary
https://youtu.be/FT_jxhwCruE
The key is everyone doing their job.
Phillips will be the key. If he plays like he should it will force things to the wings, which is essential in the wide 9 concept…if the gut isn’t ship shape then the whole thing will collapse. McMillian should help if he sheds as good or better than he did in college.
Yes!
Ballage! Was a favorite right at the beginning. He brings diverse gifts to the backfield. But R. Freeman out of Oregon really crew on me. Kalen hopefully will help get us there! Look forward to seeing him play.
you love you back… I’m with on that 100%. I do miss Williams, but heard his practice habits weren’t great.
Hey
The key is trained harder and prepare better than your opponents? YEAP! I love what gifted runners bring to a team.
The key imo is Tanny. If Tanny stays healthy I believe we will be in the playoff hunt come week 13. However; even if Tanny stays healthy, this team must come out of the gates fast. They have an opportunity to come out of the 1st quarter of the season at 3-1, seriously! They can beat Titans, Jets, Raiders, and hopefully make a game of it or even surprise the Pats. Following those 4 games are the Bengals, Bears, Lions. So, should they start 3-1 they could realistically win the following 3 games or go 2-1. They can not start 1-3 or 0-4 and expect to climb out of that hole. But the opportunity is there, with the favorable schedule along with a late bye.
The outside world only sees the players Miami has lost (Suh, Pouncey, Landry, etc), all house hold names. The outsiders (so to speak), do not see the variables tied around the releases as well as who has stepped in too replace. Miami usually does bad when expected to have a decent or better season, and usually will surprise when not expected to do anything. Hoping that holds true!
If you were to look at one of my posts from last year at this time, I probably would have been saying the same thing. However; that assessment was from a playoff appearance the previous season, and prior to Tanny going down, McMillan going down, Starting CB going down, pre-Irma, no bye (16 straight weeks), AWOL starting LBer week 1, O-Line coach destructing, the most insane schedule EVER, no home game till week 5, oh yea, and a disconnect with the starting RB Ajayi.
Now, if the outside world really step back and look into the “17 season for Miami, they could (should) realize that much of nothing could/should be taken from that season into the ’18 season. NONE AT ALL!! So there is (should) be absolutely zero comparisons that relate to this season’s team. ZERO! OK, the Head Coach.
This and the schedule is the main reasons why I feel that Miami is going to surprise in ’18. Not even to mention the players themselves. I for one love the player turnover, I believe this was the plan after Gases’ first season, but the playoff appearance derailed that plan!!!
I can’t wait to see the team as a whole and how Gase/Burke game plan their units and personal.
This is great and succinct post…
…This is a mouthful, “However; that assessment was from a playoff appearance the previous season, and prior to Tanny going down, McMillan going down, Starting CB going down, pre-Irma, no bye (16 straight weeks), AWOL starting LBer week 1, O-Line coach destructing, the most insane schedule EVER, no home game till week 5, oh yea, and a disconnect with the starting RB Ajayi.”
Fully agree with this:
” I for one love the player turnover, I believe this was the plan after Gases’ first season, but the playoff appearance derailed that plan!!!
I can’t wait to see the team as a whole and how Gase/Burke game plan their units and personal.”
Defy the Odds!
Dominate the running game in this league. This will give this team a fighting chance. The Run game is this team strength. We cannot go into this season with QB’s throwing 3 and out, killing the defense. Secondly If the Defensive line is not fixed this season will be long for the Dolphins and Sorry to watch.
Frank Gore Ultimate Colts Highlights (2015 – 2017)
https://youtu.be/O0LYXuW0mGI
Kenyan Drake Kenyan Drake Explodes for 193 Total Yards vs. Pats! | Patriots vs. Dolphins
https://youtu.be/c7bQ6BDnSs0
Kalen Ballage || “Me Against the World” || ASU Highlights
https://youtu.be/KRMos7zxOL4
The early the Dolphins had Csonka, Kiick & Morris: The Perfect Backfield |
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsLVOXH0VM4
Nice, I’ll watch them today… you like Ballage, right? Haven’t had a chance to really watch him. Need to ASAP.
Patriots vs. Dolphins | NFL Week 14 Game Highlights
https://youtu.be/j7RZy2B73hw
What Patriots’ Weaknesses Were Exposed by the Dolphins? | NFL Network
https://youtu.be/qxX0zib8OyQ
Two weeks later where later what changed this team?
Dolphins vs. Patriots | NFL Week 12 Game Highlights
https://youtu.be/JGWHCR-_U54
Teams that did win their division but won the Super Bowl!
The Wild Card Teams that Defied the Odds and Won the Super Bowl | NFL Highlights
https://youtu.be/GDMRKNc6p78
Six NFL teams have won the Super Bowl after entering the playoffs as a wild card:
• 1980: Oakland Raiders.
• 1997: Denver Broncos.
• 2000: Baltimore Ravens.
• 2005: Pittsburgh Steelers.
• 2007: New York Giants.
• 2010: Green Bay Packers.
• 2005: Pittsburgh beat Seattle, 21-10.
• 2010: Green Bay beat Pittsburgh, 31-25.
Hey Billy yeah -140 is the correct price on over 6 games. under 6 games the price is +110. but if they win 6 games you push on the wager and thats why the price is higher on the over 6 wins, because they have to win 7 games for that wager to be a winner
Hey, brother. I edited the article… did I screw it up? I know zip about betting… did I mess it up? Waiting to hear from Jimmy. Thanks for the info.
I really wish I could predict a 9-10 win season. The facts about the draft, the loss of star players, a qb coming off injury and a long time since playing, as well as no quality back-up gives more power to a bad season than a quality one. That’s not mentioning how we plan on stopping the run this year?.?.?.
So I’m going with coaching, quality leadership, & young guys ready to prove Vegas & the Odds makers wrong!!
I’m hoping for a .500 season, but maybe a couple wins like we had in Gase’s 1st year!! 8-8; 9-7; 10-6!!
I’m not there either, brother. I think at worst 7-8 wins, at this point. For me–I can’t speak for Jimmy–if I see low penalties, quick starts, and sharp play in Weeks 2-3 of the Preseason, I’ll be a bit more hopeful. It will come down to the 1st Half of Week 1 before I believe. If the positive trends continue into Week 1 (and they win), then I’ll move into that 9-10 range. My biggest gripe with 2017 was the sluggish, undisciplined play, and lack of consistency. I really like the potential of real leadership with Fitzpatrick, Gore, Amendola, Kilgore, Sitton, and Quinn. All are 100%, serious players. I think coaches can instill only so much… the players must be the kid of guys that want it. 2018 will be Chemistry v.s. talent… it will be a very interesting experiment…
Yeap!
Admin
I don’t think no team can be underestimated?
At the start of the season, the Eagles were given only a 35 percent chance to make the playoffs — and just a 2 percent chance to win the big game. Philly steadily climbed its way up the rankings throughout the season, but never quite had better odds than the Goliath New England Patriots.
2018 is very exciting to me because I have been taught two things about football from my beginning in it: It’s the greatest team game and it’s a game about who has the best horses. Sort of contradictory… but not. This season will reveal a lot about what is the greater component. Very excited to see on just this point alone.
This season we fans don’t want to hear about fit into Gase plan BUT how much the players are improving under Coach Gase plan each week.
Decades the Dolphins have been quite adamant playing substandard football. Dominant run attack means victory for the Fins. Miami Dolphins passing attacked has hindered this teams success for decades. How many Quarterbacks,Quarterback Guru Coaches,Two Owners have failed with this concepts?
It’s been proven over the Decades that the Miami Dolphins has beaten the Patriots when other teams could not.
It’s been proven that the quarterback who perfects the bootleg,perfects the screen play, powerful run game. Will exploit the Patriots every game.
This is not Rocket science! Watching a Quarterback getting clobbered each play is not coaching. 3 running backs let’s get it done.