Dolphins are projected to win 8.3 games according to NFL.com projections
The Miami Dolphins’ 2025 NFL schedule has been officially released, featuring a mix of traditional rivalries, challenging matchups, and a historic international game. Let’s take a deeper look and see if we can get a very ‘early bird’ take for a projected win-loss record.
You can be with the best pay per heads there are innumerable variables that can happen in a crazy NFL season, the biggest variable of all for the Dolphins in Tua’s health, so nothing should be written in stone. But a fair case for a 2-3 game spread in wins and losses can be had if you pull out the variables as base line before Training Camp.
So, let’s dig into it and see what can be gleaned from the schedule release.
Overview of the Phins opponents
Now, first off, we have the tougher rouges galley of opponents at home compared to the away games. That is always a bonus. We only have three high probability bad weather games and for the Phins that’s great news too. On the downside we lose a home game to our European game in Spain. I don’t like that. While it’s a bummer to lose the home game, it is technically a highlight of the season is the Dolphins’ participation in the NFL’s first-ever regular-season game in Spain verse the Washington Commanders at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in Madrid.
Here’s the layout of opponents:
Home Games (Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens)
- AFC East Rivals: Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, New York Jets
- AFC North Opponents: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals
- NFC South Teams: New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- AFC West Matchup: Los Angeles Chargers
- NFC East Opponent: Washington Commanders (to be played in Madrid, Spain)
Away Games
- AFC East Rivals: Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, New York Jets
- AFC North Opponents: Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
- NFC South Teams: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers
- AFC South Matchup: Indianapolis Colts
Phins again get a weak Strength of Schedule
The Dolphins had the easiest strength of schedule in 2024; this year the OSOS ranking isn’t that ‘easy’ but it’s still very favorable. Based on opponents’ 2024 records, the Dolphins have the 11th-easiest schedule in the NFL for 2025. Of course, the reality is NFL teams can change a whole lot from year to year, so take this with a VERY liberal grain of salt.
Projected Win-Loss Record?
Here’s some of the projections: the NFL.com Analysts project the Dolphins to finish with 8.3 wins, FanDuel Sportsbook and Team Rankings 8.5 wins, and Conversific has a very hopeful 11-win total. The averaging of projections, the Dolphins are projected to win total 9.3 for the 2025 season.
The general view is the Dolphins will see a modest improvement over the previous season’s 8-9 record. How well they perform will depend on several key factors, including quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s health, the effectiveness of their offensive line and running the football, and the team’s ability to capitalize on a relatively favorable schedule. The same old issues that have plagued the Phins for some time.
Can we finally fix these issues, get over the hump, and finally head in truly good trajectory?
Like you, I sure hope so! But, sadly, like most of you I won’t bet the house on it. Still, if we can get to even 9 wins with a tight cap, load of rookies, in a rebuilding year, maybe just maybe we finally have something legit to believe in! Go Phins!!