What Players Must Hit For 2018 Draft To Be A Success

Jimmy Bourbon

7 years ago

If you believe the draft critics, Miami gets a “C” grade…

…But according to the Phins brass, the draft was an “A+”

We are now past the initial wave of hype from of the NFL 2018 Draft. On the surface, Phinsnews thinks Miami did a good job of sticking to their board and drafting the guys they wanted at positions of need.

We know the names of the 8 picks at this point (see above pic for a refresher).

But the big question is, how many of these picks will be contributors this season… and beyond? A big part of the early evaluation is how many players–and to what degree–add to the success of 2018?

It’s time to spitball and postulate:

Minkah Fitzpatrick–the do it all Safety/Cornerback–must immediately come in and be the QB of our defense. Very few say it was a bad pick. Some say it’s a meh pick: staunch fans of Edmunds, James, or Vea… and ‘trade back’ Steven Ross included. Despite the success that the former mentioned players will or won’t have, Phinsnews believes the detractors will ultimately change their tune.

Nick Saban said that Minkah was his favorite defensive player of all time. That’s quite a notable statement. Saban (despite Phins fans hatred of him) is arguably the best college football coach in history and known for defense.

The success of the 2018 Season hinges on the success of this draft

Minkah’s college start had ‘rare’ written all over it. He started as a true freshman for Alabama, something that’s unheard of on a Saban team. Also, Minkah was the only player ever allowed to watch ‘tape’ in Saban’s personal film study room. Given Saban’s… err, ahem… peculiar personality that’s a HUGE endorsement.

Fitzpatrick has all the indications that he’s a very special player, folks. And there’s an extra sweetness to his pick. The bookie reviews like The best pay per head site in the world believe the only reason he dropped to#11 was due to the Phins ‘going Machiavelli’, tricking everyone into thinking that they were all in on a QB. This screwball from the peanut gallery will say it again, “Nice job.”

Fitzpatrick is the lynchpin to the draft’s success… no ‘ifs, ands, or buts’.

He must play at least at an above average level in 2018. And with each degree higher than above average that he plays, the more leeway the rest of the draft will have to still be rated a success.

In the 2nd Round, Miami picked TE Mike Gesicki. The former Volleyball and Basketball player that has serious ups, and is excellent at jump balls at their high point. Gesicki ‘should’ immediately become a ‘sick’ red-zone target for Tannehill.

However, questions about his horrendous blocking and whether he can get off jams has some wondering why Miami didn’t pick Dallas Goedert. While the same knock was said about Jimmy Graham and he became a Pro Bowler, the same was also said about new Dolphins FA TE Gavin Escobar… and so far he’s been a bust. Then there’s Miami’s legendary reminder in Michael Egnew that a 2nd Round Pick on an incomplete TE can be disastrous. Ouch! Double OUCH!!

But, the Pats were right behind the Dolphins and traded out after they picked Gesicki. This gives a good hint that Miami made a very good move!

If Phins get near Pro Bowl play from their 1st and 2nd Round picks, the rest will be gravy

Despite Miami wisely doubling down on the TE position by selecting Durham Smythe from Notre Dame, Gesicki will forever be compared to Goedert. Perception of the Dolphins draft will be highly colored by this comparison. If both Gesicki and Goedert flop, then it might be considered a push. But, if Goedert rises and Gesicki stumbles… the ghost of Egnew will have a chant-rattling partner.

Now if Smythe ends up as an Anthony Fasano type player, it will hedge the fallout of a possible Gesicki nosedive. Smythe was the best blocking TE in the draft, but his receiving skills were solid despite limited opportunities. He has a very real chance to be a true 3-down TE and should be a quality H-back ta’ boot.

Should Minkah be a Pro Bowl Safety and the two TE’s become solid starters, the draft will be a success… even if everyone else is a bust.

But, should Gesicki flop and Smythe be just a blocker, then Jerome Baker and Kalen Ballage will be ‘must wins’.

I guess if Minkah is a Top 5 FS, Gesicki flops, Smythe is just a blocker and Ballage and Baker are even steady, the 2018 Draft would still be a success. But, this wouldn’t bode well for the evaluation skills of the scouts and would put future drafts in doubt.

Jerome Baker gave Phinsnews the most pause when picked

Jerome Baker–who’s fast but a bit raw–excels in man coverage and filled a big need. M.J. and I have flagged Baker as most likely to disappoint of the Top 3 Picks. We aren’t saying he will, but his pick brought us the most concern. The talk on Baker is all about his speed, but Stephone Anthony, at 14 lbs heavier, ran only .03 seconds slower. Phinsnews is high on Anthony, but a fierce battle for the WLB spot will be good for both. If in the early stage, Baker is even an excellent nickel / rotational / roleplayer / Special Teams stand out, then it’s still a big win.

Baker being less than a starter though would make Ballage a must hit… and hit big if Gesicki doesn’t shine. Ballage was a very good value pick in the fourth round. He’s big and fast and an excellent receiver. But questions about his toughness at the next level led to him being a mid-round pick but the brakes on his ton of upside. He’ll be the third running back on the depth chart next season so he’ll have time to improve without a ton of pressure on him. At the very least, Ballage will be a backup RB.

Miami needs at least 2 starters from the 2018 Draft

Cornell Armstrong’s pro day put him on the map. Armstrong ran a 4.43 in the 40-yard dash, 10’5” in the broad jump, and had 38 ½ inch hops on his vertical. His college resume and physical talent in there… but he’s a small schooler. Will his talent translate? Likely he’ll send former 6th Rd Pick Jordan Lucas packing if he sticks. It would be coup de grace if he turns into something.

Quentin Poling most likely will vie with Mike Hull for a roster spot. It’s highly possible that neither make it. Miami will likely keep six LBs: McMillian, Alonso, Anthony, Allen, and Baker are a lock. Veteran Terance Garvin, Poling, and Hull will be fighting for that final spot. We like the Garvin to take it because he can play the SAM backer. Poling is a prime candidate for the Practice Squad.

Miami’s 7th Round pick could play big for 2018

Miami’s last pick was Kicker Jason Sanders, who at the moment appears to be our starting kicker. Can Miami fix his accuracy issues? Sanders had a shaky college field goal percentage of 71% making 25 out of 35 field goals. That’s a far cry from Florida’s Kicker Eddy Pineiro (who Phinsnews liked). Pinnero was still available when Miami selected Sanders. This will be another comparison that could have major consequences in 2018. Pinnero had a college career field goal percentage of 88.4% making 38 out of 43 field goals and probably has the biggest leg in the draft. This could come back to haunt Miami because good kickers will win a handful of games for a team each year, whereas subpar kickers will end up losing a couple of games each year. Darren Rizzi has been pretty much money, so we’ll bank on him doing it again.

Ultimately, some picks won’t make it. That’s a fact. Overall, Phinsnews liked Miami’s draft and expects it to be graded at the very least a “B”. We do think that it could be much higher, depending on how Sanders, Ballage, and Baker turn out. We fully expect Fitzpatrick, Gesicki, and Smythe to be good ones. The only question we have is, just how good they’ll be.

What are the rest of the Miami Dolphins News fans thoughts on our 2018 draft class?