Why Ajayi is just as good as Gurley

Jimmy Bourbon

10 years ago

The Dolphins were extremely interested in selecting Todd Gurley with the number 14^th overall selection. There were even rumors that if both Gurley and Parker were available then the Dolphins brass actually favored selecting Gurley. However, the Saint Louis Rams helped make the decision easier for the phins, because they selected him with the 10^th overall pick. It will be interesting to see which player ends up having a better NFL career. Fortunately for the Dolphins, they were able to draft a running back all the way in the fifth round that is a close second in terms of talent and ability in Jay Ajayi.

Ajayi was predicted by many of the pay per head reviews to be selected no later than the second round, however, his physical had shown that his knee was bone on bone, which scared a lot of NFL teams in regards to the longevity of his NFL career. He was healthy in his last two seasons at Boise State, but more teams were viewing his bone on the bone knee as something that would have an extremely low chance of holding up in the NFL. It is extremely interesting that teams where in love with Gurley who was coming off a very recent ACL injury, whereas teams were more afraid of Ajayi who has been healthy and playing dominant football for the last two seasons. On a purely statistical level, Ajayi outperformed Gurley in most categories.

In 2014

Gurley 6 games, 123 Atts, 989 Yds, 7.4 Avg, 9 TD, 12 Rec, 57 Yds, 0 TD

Ajayi 14 games, 347 Atts, 1,823 Yds, 5.3 Avg, 28 TD, 50 Rec, 535 Yds, 4 TD

In 2013

Gurley 10 games, 165 Atts, 989 Yds, 6.0 Avg, 10 TD, 37 Rec, 441 Yds, 6 TD

Ajayi 13 games, 249 Atts, 1,425 Yds, 5.7 Avg, 18 TD, 22 Rec, 222Yds, 1 TD

Besides Ajayi running for more yards and scoring more Touchdowns than Gurley the most interesting statistic is the number of games played for each player. Ajayi was able to stay healthy and play in 27 games in his last 2 seasons, whereas Gurley was only able to stay healthy for 16 games (Gurley was suspended for a couple of games as well) in his last 2 seasons. On a health basis based on the numbers Ajayi clearly looks like the less of the health risk of the 2 players. Sure Ajayi has taken a much bigger pounding on his body since he has carried the ball 596 times in the last 2 years compared to Gurley’s 288 attempts in the same time frame. (More than double the carries and pounding.) However, we can play devil’s advocate, and say that even though Ajayi has more miles on his body, those miles have not affected his health in regards to missing playing time, which proves he can healthily take a pounding. Anything will happen, so only time will tell which of these two players can stay healthy and productive the most in the NFL.

So for the Dolphins to get a player that is comparable to Gurley in both running and catching ability, in the 5^th round is a tremendous value. Another way to look at it is that Miami was able to select the receiver they wanted in Parker and was able to get a running back in the 5^th round that has a very similar playing style to Gurley, a player who they were extremely interested in drafting in the first round. This also demonstrates what a great job both Tannenbaum and Hickey were able to do with the draft board.

As long as Ajayi stays healthy then he will get significant playing time because he is a perfect compliment to Lamar Miller. Ajayi is a perfect third-down back, he can get that tough yard, or he can catch a pass out of the backfield and turn it into a big play. In addition, Ajayi is going to see a lot of opportunities at the goal line and inside the red-zone due to his unique ability to grind out tough yards and excellent receiving skills. I think a reasonable assumption is that he can easily give us 5 to 7 touchdowns worth of production this upcoming season. What does the rest of the Miami Dolphins News fans think about the selection of Ajayi?

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In 2014

In 2013

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