Will Covid-19 Hit the NFL Salary Cap?

The NFL salary cap is tied to revenue generated

Covid-19 hit the health and wealth of America hard–very hard! So much has been, is, and will be lost to this virus. While much of the damage is plain to see, only time will reveal the full extent of the economic damage. The serious problems of job loss, mounting bills, and health issues felt by millions of ‘average joes’ will eventually trickle down to their pastimes, so even mega leagues like the NFL will take a hit… in time.

As we all know, the NFL uses a salary cap as the backbone of the competitive structure:

FOX Business: “The NFL utilizes a “hard cap,” meaning that teams can’t exceed the imposed upper limit. Each season, the salary cap is determined by calculations tied to the NFL’s revenue for that league year.“

In 1994, the league introduced the cap and it was set at ‘just’ $34 million. Twenty years later in 2014, the cap had ballooned to $133 million, a $10 million increase over 2013. Currently, the cap is $198 million and expected to rise near $20 million to $215 million in 2021…

… But, what if the league revenue drops instead of rises? What will this mean to team design going forward?

Many teams will suffer if the the cap doesn’t rise

Teams stuffed with over-priced stars and Free Agents will get hurt badly if the NFL cap doesn’t rise. If a franchise hasn’t practiced cap responsibility, they will be crippled for years as they try to get out from under the bloated contracts.

A cap freeze or drop is double edged sword for the Miami Dolphins.

The Phins are stuffed with cheap rookies, extra draft picks, and plenty of cap space. In an era of cap stagnation or decline, they are in prime position to take advantage of the situation. Currently, the Phins are slated to have the 11th best cap situation in 2021, along with plenty of picks in the next draft.

On the flip side, the Patriots are ranked 3rd and the Jets 9th in most cap space in 2021. Miami trumps the Jets because they have more picks and Darnold is entering the final year of his contract next season. You could also bet with the best pay per head software like www.AcePerHead.com that Miami has the better coach, too.

The Patriots though are sitting very pretty with a ton of picks next year, cap space, and they have Belichick. This could give them the second leg of their dynasty if Jarrett Stidham ends up a good quarterback.

While Cap space and draft picks aren’t the end-all-be-all though, it does mean that three teams in the AFCE have plenty of tools. Still, if Miami takes care of its business, then the new era in the division will be aqua colored.

In a stagnant or degrading salary cap…

Over-priced quarterbacks are an albatross around a team’s neck
Draft picks will rise to an even higher premium
Compensatory pick value will skyrocket
Free Agency will diminish in value and veterans could see their careers end sooner rather than later
Undrafted Free Agents will be in more demand and their salaries could rise as well
Second contracts of player salaries will diminish

We won’t know until next year what direction the salary cap will go. Hopefully, it continues to rise because that would mean the pockets of Americans aren’t empty. But if it goes the other way, a very small consolation to the many suffering Phins Fans is that the Dolphins are in an excellent position to weather the storm. Be well in these terrible times! Go Phins!!!

* Editor’s note: I want to thank Van Hamlin and Randy Richbourg for their help in thinking through this article with our conversations.

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