Xavien Howard: Buy or Sell?

M.J.

6 years ago

Miami has struggled to find quality players in the 2nd Round… not with Xavien Howard.

Xavien Howard has been excellent recently… when healthy

However you want to slice it, trade, rent, or buy, Xavien Howard is one of the few true blue chips in the hands of Dolphins management.

This is without question.

The only question is what should the Dolphins do with Howard? With a new regime on board, Howard in the final year of his rookie contract has all the makings of ‘trade bait’.

Howard will get a huge contract from someone at around $15 million dollars per season with a large portion of it guaranteed. But is he worth roughly 10% of a team’s total CAP?

Whether Howard stays or is shipped out, uncertainty will hang over this decision because of his propensity for injury and the unknown of who will be acquired with the picks Miami receives for him.

There’s no real clear-cut answer to this question… even with the best
pay per head software.

Let’s look at Howard’s career so far as a Dolphin:

Howard has been a starter in 36 of 48 possible games (because of injury) since his rookie season.
There have been 3 surgeries to trim his knee meniscus over three seasons. I couldn’t remember or find information if the two surgeries in 2016 and the one in 2018 were on the same knee. Either way, this isn’t optimal.
His 2018 50.9 percent catch rate on receivers he guarded was 3rd best in the NFL.
Howard was tied in 1st place along with two other players in interceptions with seven total picks.
The 19 Pass Defenses Howard collect in 2018 has him tied with 3 other players in 5th place.
PFF has Howard ranked 16th best Cornerback in the league.
Howard’s 16.2 yards per catch allowed was the 2nd worst among starting corners.

Yung Mayo is a great resource for ALL Dolphins fans. Below is a beautiful graphic of his on Howard. You can also check out Yung Mayo’s Season Review of Howard here.

What to do with Howard? Buy or sell?

Money is at the bottom of the rationales to ship Howard out. The CAP is more flexible than a rapier. the cuts coming and Miami not being burdened down with an expensive QB contract, $15 million per season will be far less over the remaining years of his contract… if it’s front-loaded to 2019.

At 25, Howard will still be in his prime when the Dolphins attempt a serious run. By then they’ll at the cheaper portion of his contract. This will allow them to fit Howard easily under the CAP.

Money won’t determine if Howard stays or goes… opportunity and health will

My biggest concern is Howard’s durability. Since Training Camp of 2016, he has been getting his meniscus shaved. Knees are fickle and once you cut a ligament, a player is never as good as new. He’s already missed nearly a season’s worth of games because of his knee issues. I’m not James Andrews, but investing that much guaranteed money on a balky knee isn’t what this doctor orders.

A reader, Van E. Hamlin, brought up using Howard as a chip to move up in the draft to get a QB. I think Howard is worth the money as a player (knee issues not included), especially with the style of defense we are expected to run. His press skills are a perfect match for the scheme Brian Flores has run with New England. But I have to agree with Van here, knee issue or not, if you can use Howard to move up and grab a Quarterback, it’s the right move–in theory.

What if Miami gets picks not in the Top 10 in return for Howard?

What Miami gets picks for Howard that don’t directly put them in position to nab a QB? This option brings the biggest risk. The NFL Draft isn’t a certain science. Miami could end up with a bust in return for a good player. That would be a very sour storyline.

The hope is Miami gets at least a 1st Round pick for Howard… and maybe a little extra in the 5th or 6th. Unfortunately, nothing is guaranteed. But if this ends up the case, Miami could then either parlay the picks to move up to get a QB or, better yet, trade back to acquire more picks to enhance the opportunity.

Standing pat somewhere in the 1st and taking a lone player in what is essentially a one-for-one trade wouldn’t thrill me… unless they nail the pick.

Do you like those odds?

What Grier and Flores do will Howard will be a center-piece move

The options surrounding Howard’s future in Miami are many… all heaped with risk and reward. What is his real value to GMs around the league? Is it as much as is expected? What’s his value to Grier and Flores? This plot is a big one. Whatever the Dolphins leadership does with Howard, they must stick the landing… if they want to get this franchise to win gold someday. Fingers crossed. Go Phins!!!

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