Has McDaniel and Tua offense been figured out?
A hot topic in Miami Dolphins coverage over the last couple of days has been on the video of Houston Texans coach DeMeco Ryans calling out the play before it happened. Now many are wondering if Mike McDaniel’s offense been figured out.
The obvious answer is yes, of course it has.
We’ve seen teams slowly but surely shutting down the prolific offense of 2022 and early 2023 slowly but surely. The question is why has it been figured out, and can it be fixed?
What’s going on with the Dolphins offense?
First, Mike McDaniel was an ultra green head coach with no offensive coordinator experience and was asked to at once learn to be head coach and offensive coordinator and win big immediately. This was a Herculean task, and short cuts had to be taken.
Clearly, McDaniel doesn’t have a great feel for the game, although, he’s had some moments. Adjustments aren’t a great suit for him either, but again he’s had his moments. Beyond all the motion, there is a lack of nuance on the offense and sloppiness from plays getting in and players making mistakes. It’s hard not see these things, but again, this was not a setup with great odds from the best football software to succeed. It was a mad dash to the finish line and injuries and defensive coordinators learning quick beat them to the finish line.
But is this the whole recipe for the clear stagnation of the Phins offense?
Shouldn’t this also be viewed as a core reason for the Phins failure?
I’ve said for years that the offensive line makes the NFL world go around. Jim Harbaugh talked about it this offseason how drafting offensive linemen was sexy because they are the only unit that doesn’t depend on anyone and everyone else depends on.
Being a defensive coordinator is like gambling. You look at the odds on the tendencies of the offensive coordinator in his playbook and hedge the areas you want to take away and where you think he’s going to attack. The problem with the Dolphins is they have a very small menu and are for the most part one dimensional. This makes it much easier for defensive coordinators to hit Yahtzee on McDaniel and Tua. Regardless of whether you think they are good or not, this isn’t a great situation for any quarterback or play caller.
Tua as flaws, McDaniel has flaws, but this Oline accentuates them
The Dolphins have averaged 45 yards on the ground over the last three weeks. Besides huge chunk runs on 1st down mostly, they haven’t been a consistent rushing attack since McDaniel has taken over, and they have been very poor in the Red Zone and on 3rd and 4th and shorts running the football.
Defensive coordinators have been setting up shop in near lock step for a long time because they have zero concern of the Dolphins inside run game. They can play high leverage in the box, running nickel defense, not blitz and still get a pass rush, and focus at once on what Miami can do well:
The Dolphins very small menu:
- Pocket post (nearly gone this season and late last season)
- Deep throws shut down by Cover 2 and Cover 3
- Outside Zone runs (with zero cut back so it’s edge or bust)
- Screens (2022 Screens 5%, 2023 Screens 15%, 2024 Screens 19%)
Other than this what can Miami run with consistency and authority? Nothing.
Yes, Tua has flaws. Yes, McDaniel has flaws. The problem is the whole league has moved on from fun ball and is now all about pass balance as the offensive sweet spot. Problem is Miami can’t get in the game because they have a Porches with a Yugo engine of an offensive line
I did a podcast on this if you want to check it out here.
But the gist if it and my evaluation from about a year and half ago and onwards is this defense perfectly handles Miami’s entire offensive menu.
Why and how does this defense cripple the Dolphins offense?
Well, Miami has offensive speed, so you put your speed defenses of nickels and dimes to counter it. Normally, an offense will then make you pay with their big groups like the one you see above by running you out of the small defensive look. But we are only good at running to the edges and the depth of the linebackers gives them free run to the edges and for prolific screen game as well as for dropping to the middle stop the pocket post. And the cherry on top is that the Cover 2 makes the deep ball very difficult to get off and offers a security blanket if a screen, edge run, or pocket post is caught to stop the quick strike.
Grier believed he was the smartest guy in the room
And no matter if we have two tight ends that outsize the small pass defense, we can never run opposing defense out of this look and even struggle to run inside, which is the area that these defenses offer up as their soft spot. So, while the offense is supposed to have the initiative that keeps the defenses guesses and reacting, the menu is so small that they can take the initiative as far as looks go and all the Dolphins have is snap count, and how will they attack the edges and the middle.
This is far too little of a menu especially for good defenses with good coordinators.
It’s really laughable that any profession would put together an offense like this and expect to have success. BUT we have GM Chris Grier, who believes in the road extremely less traveled.
The problem is the road less traveled is less traveled for a reason: most who go that way are eaten by bears and popped out. Let’s hope he isn’t in charge next year or it will be more of the same. Sadly, I’m betting he will be. Go Phins!!!