The Xavien Howard: A ‘Hold Out or Hold Up’?
How hard will Howard play to get a new contract?
Xavien Howard missed OTAs and Miami Dolphins Head Coach Brian Flores said the ‘absence was about a new contract’. That’s pretty definitive. But, does this mean Howard is holding out until he gets his demands, or was this just a veteran move to miss OTAs? We don’t know. Does Howard deserve a new contract or is this move a ‘hold-up’ of the Dolphins franchise? That’s a matter of opinion.
What is clear is Howard and his 10 interceptions were a huge reason why Miami surprised the league in 2020 by going 10-6 on the season. Beyond the interceptions, Howard also had his best year all around after undergoing a risky procedure on his perennial bad knees. When healthy, Howard is Miami’s best draft pick in years and clearly worth every dime…
… But, let’s consider other facts:
Could Howard just be making a vet move to miss OTAs?
Business is business after all. So, normally, I’d side with the player in this matter because teams cut players at the ‘knees of their contracts’ all the time. Look at Kyle Van Noy as a clear example of contracts mean nothing…
… but this case is a little different for many reasons.
Howard signed his new contract on May 9th in 2019, then went on to play in only 5 games and played poorly in his limited appearance because of his knees. This was on top of playing in only playing in 35 of a possible 48 games during the 1st three years of his rookie contract. You can also add in how the Phins stuck by Howard during his ugly domestic abuse issues and police arriving on the scene of a party he was at because of gunfire.
For me, Howard ‘owed’ Miami one more season of elite play before making his move. That’s my take… doesn’t have to be yours.
Now, because of his health and poor decisions counterbalanced by his elite play and the timing of his demands, Howard has created extenuating circumstances making the Phins front office navigation this situation a very complicated one. History and the best sports betting software company bet knee problems will return… but, that doesn’t mean they will.
Really, the situation is problematic for the franchise no matter how this plays out other than Howard showing back up and playing the 2021 Season as is.
Why you say?
‘Just pay the man’ is easier said than done
The Miami Dolphins have high expectations in 2021… and their defense is the key piece in these expectations. Press Man coverage is key in the Brian Flores defense and that demands two quality corners. Beyond Howard and Byron Jones, there isn’t a quality boundary corner on the roster. Noah Igbinoghene was drafted 30th Overall in 2020, but he is so young and his play was terrible as a rookie. It’s highly unlikely that he’s ready for the extended role of starting corner. Nik Needham, Jamal Perry, or Javaris Davis? Nope, they won’t work either.
With little money and now past the draft, Howard has a huge amount of leverage. So, the reality is if the Phins want to be successful in 2021, then they must pony up to the tune of $21 plus million per season for Howard. That’s a bump of $8 plus million per season and a load more of guaranteed money.
Again, not terrible… if Howard wasn’t so inconsistent because of health and off the field problems.
A further complication is what direction will the NFL Cap take in 2022? Up a lot, up a little, stay the same, or down? The NFL and the players union are anticipating the cap to return to its 2020 level with a $20 million bump… but that’s no guarantee. The whole country is still taking a financial hit. How that will affect the NFL revenue is an unknown. Then there are Howard’s knees, which have limited him to only two full seasons in his five-year career. Howard has played less than 50% in two of these five seasons. The impact on the Dolphins should this happen again with Howard consuming as much as 5% of the total cap would be devastating. Add in Howard is turning 28 this July 4th, and the closer he gets to 30, the more likely he’ll hit a wall. His knee history could make every year a dog’s year as well. — White label sportsbook platforms and customized betting software solutions.
The Phins’ brass must weigh the long term and short term rewards
Miami could be ready to contend for a Super Bowl in the next few years and their star corner could be descending and due to his contract, they’d have little wiggle room to replace him. But, without Howard, the 2021 Season will be dramatically more difficult and expectations would have to be severely downgraded.
While Howard has every right to do what he’s doing, he played this to perfection to put the Phins’ franchise between a brutal ‘rock and a hard place’.
Will Howard compromise to some level or due to his leverage stick to being paid at the highest level?
Will Miami attach commit huge financial resources to their super talented corner despite the huge risk?
A Howard ‘holdout or hold up’ is clearly one of the top three storylines in a season backed with so many big storylines.
What will come of this in both in the short and long term? With so many factors tied in, who knows?!
All I can say is go Phins!!! — The Basics of Sports Betting Software.
The Dolphins bet on him and gave him a contract he did not deserve. But to his credit he went on to have a great year. But he is being paid huge money. Maybe he has another great year. Maybe not. But if he had not had a great year I doubt he would have refunded the great money. I think that letting him unfairly hold you hostage is a bad message to every player on the team. Let him live up to the contract or hold out and not be paid. Or give him performance incentives so he makes more if he has another spectacular year but less if he goes back to 2019 performance.
“The Dolphins bet on him and gave him a contract he did not deserve. But to his credit he went on to have a great year. But he is being paid huge money. ”
Sammy I’m with you… Would you trade him? I’m actually torn… his absence totally changes 2021… then we’d need another corner in 2022… how long before he develops? Does he develop… Howard has every right… but it feels like a nasty move. I’m my most torn right now over this move than any I can remember. His long-term commitment is nearly as dangerous as his loss short-term!!!
Ohh, and this wacky system of Jimmy’s is making me approve you for some reason. Sorry.
I imagine that Howard wants guaranteed cash rather than an increased incentive package. I suppose the only realistic way to keep Howard is to pony up what money we can find. Maybe you can cut someone else to make ends meet.
The other side of this is to play hardball and enforce his contract. Fine the crap out of him for every day he misses. At some point you may have to demand bonus money back. You can make him an example of how not to negotiate with the team. Yes, we will miss him on the field but we will have sent a message to other players that holding out is not the answer.
You know, Van…
We’ve been doing this for a long while. I’m the most torn over anything with this move. No Howard will change the dimension of this def. like nobody’s business. Can we replace him this year or next? I Really liked Surtain the II in this draft… thought he has the look of something special. This season would be so hard without Howard… so hard. BUT, committing HUGE guaranteed money to such an inconsistent player this late with such an injury history on top of his off-the-field issues… it could hamstring Miami badly in those critical 2022-24 seasons. I just don’t have any clue what the right direction… As a conservative type of team builder though, I think I’m leaning towards sending him packing if the price is right or just fining him… problem with fining him is he can show up to start the season unready and injure himself… then you have a double big disaster.
“At some point you may have to demand bonus money back. You can make him an example of how not to negotiate with the team. Yes, we will miss him on the field but we will have sent a message to other players that holding out is not the answer.”
This is another issue…
… If Van was the GM, what would you do?
I am one whom believes that a player should honor his contract. Yes his coverage was great last season. He should drop the greed and play out this season. If he repeat or better this season than last season, then sit down and talk contract renewal.
This wacky system of Jimmy’s is making me approve you for some reason. Sorry.
“He should drop the greed and play out this season. If he repeats or better this season than last season, then sit down and talk contract renewal.”
This is my firm belief as well. I just don’t like the timing. It puts the whole franchise that backed him over a big barrel, William. As it settles in my mind, this issue is making me quite divided and I usually have a firm stance, but I keep going back and forth… Would you trade him if the offer is right as a middle ground? What would be a right offer in your mind?
I am one whom aslo believes that players should honor their contracts,and show their worth on the field. He should play out this season and drop the greed. If this season turns out his play is as good or better than last season. Sit down and talk contact renewal at that period
The phins had his back big time when they gave him that 5 year deal, I personally believe he should have a prove it bonus incentive clause. $4 million if he plays the entire year, and $4 million if he makes pro-bowl again. No phin fan wants to lose X, but we can’t mortgage the future either, to much injury history.
This wacky system of Jimmy’s is making me approve you for some reason. Sorry.
” No phin fan wants to lose X, but we can’t mortgage the future either, to much injury history.”
This point seems to be the one that has the most weight in my mind. But, losing him, if he stays healthy, is such a massive loss. I think the thing that gets me the most is he waited till all the leverage was in his court… which is fair, but I would feel less angry or torn or bitter about it if he had given the Phins the ability to compensate given he has had so many injuries and his off the field issues. I think given his off the field issues and this, my view of his character has take a severe turn south…
… what do you think is a fair return in a trade?